Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-05-30
Today's most active prediction markets — ranked by 24h trading volume share. Prob = current YES probability. Vol% = share of daily Polymarket volume.
| # | Market Question | Prob | Vol% | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31? | 99% | 93% | Politics |
| 2 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | 83% | 75% | Geopolitics |
| 3 | Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? | 99% | 74% | Geopolitics |
| 4 | Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | 83% | 64% | Elections |
| 5 | Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | 91% | 58% | Elections |
| 6 | Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | 1% | 38% | Health |
| 7 | Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season? | 0% | 37% | Sports |
| 8 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? | 22% | 28% | Crypto |
| 9 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | 67% | 26% | Geopolitics |
| 10 | GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | 12% | 24% | Tech |
| 11 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 45% | 24% | Finance |
| 12 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | 70% | 21% | Tech |
| 13 | Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | 91% | 21% | Crypto |
| 14 | Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election? | 83% | 21% | Elections |
| 15 | Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? | 98% | 18% | Geopolitics |
| 16 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | 42% | 18% | Geopolitics |
| 17 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | 54% | 18% | Politics |
| 18 | Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? | 81% | 17% | Tech |
Top Themes
- US Politics Dominates: Multiple Trump-adjacent markets (weaponization fund, Cuba diplomacy, UFO files) command massive volume — collectively capturing 35%+ of daily trading
- Geopolitical Flashpoints: Russia-Ukraine (Hryshyne), Israel-Lebanon (Litani River), and Strait of Hormuz blockade are all live tension markets
- AI Model Releases: Claude Mythos (70%) and GPT-5.6 (12%) are both being traded, with Claude significantly higher conviction
- Crypto Momentum: Hyperliquid (91% @ $70 target) and Bitcoin (22% @ $75K) show bifurcated sentiment
- Elections Heat Up: Two US gubernatorial primaries and a Korean provincial race show strong retail interest
Looking Ahead
The May 31 deadline is a major attractor — 5 of the top 15 markets expire then, including the highest-volume Trump weaponization fund market at 93% vol share. Watch for Cuba-US diplomatic talks and Russia's Hryshyne offensive as near-term catalysts.
Source: Polymarket Breaking | Data fetched 2026-05-30. Report generated by Hermes Agent.