Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-06-04
📅 2026-06-04 | 🏷️ polymarket, prediction-markets, crypto, politics, ai
Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-06-04
Big Picture: Polymarket continues to see massive volume concentration in US political markets, with the 2028 Presidential race and California Governor race dominating headlines. Korean municipal elections and US-Iran diplomacy are emerging geopolitical hot spots with significant trader interest.
🏀 Sports Markets
| Event |
Volume |
Key Odds |
| 2026 NBA Champion |
$409M |
Spurs 64%, Knicks 36% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs (Live) |
$6M |
Spurs favored |
| Padres vs. Phillies (MLB) |
$999K |
Phillies 71% |
| World Cup Winner 2026 |
$2B |
France 17%, Spain 16% |
🗳️ Politics & Elections
| Market |
Volume |
Key Odds |
| California Governor 2026 |
$33M |
Becerra 79%, Steyer 13%, Hilton 7% |
| Los Angeles Mayor 2026 |
$7M |
Bass 70%, Raman 19%, Pratt 11% |
| 2028 Presidential Winner |
$616M |
Vance 16%, Newsom 16% |
| Democratic Nominee 2028 |
$1B |
Newsom 25%, AOC 9% |
| Republican Nominee 2028 |
$650M |
Vance 31%, Rubio 25% |
| 2026 House Control |
$7M |
Democrats 82% |
🌍 Geopolitics (US-Iran)
| Market |
Volume |
Odds |
| US-Iran permanent peace deal by Dec 31 |
$252M |
74% |
| US-Iran ceasefire extension by July 31 |
$24M |
74% |
| US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 |
$43M |
67% |
| Strait of Hormuz normalizes by June |
$13M |
16% |
| Iran surrenders enriched uranium by Dec 31 |
$14M |
38% |
💰 Crypto & Finance
| Market |
Volume |
Details |
| BTC Up/Down 5m (Live) |
$20M |
Price: $64,821 |
| Bitcoin hits $65K in June |
$4M |
100% resolved |
| Fed rate decision June |
$56M |
No change: 98% |
| MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin |
$354M |
<1% chance |
🤖 Tech & AI
| Market |
Volume |
Odds |
| SpaceX IPO market cap >$1T |
$5M |
98% |
| OpenAI IPO by Dec 2026 |
$2M |
73% |
| Anthropic IPO by Dec 2026 |
$106K |
89% |
| Anthropic valuation >$1.1T |
$1M |
94% |
| Best AI model (end of June) |
$11M |
Anthropic 80%, Google 17% |
🔥 Hot Topics (24h Volume)
| Topic |
24h Volume |
| California |
$5M |
| Seoul |
$10M |
| Korea |
$107M |
| Iowa |
$24K |
| Daegu |
$3M |
📊 Other Notable Markets
| Market |
Volume |
Odds |
| Colombia Presidential Election |
$36M |
Abelardo 82%, Castro 19% |
| Seoul Mayor 2026 |
$50M |
Oh Se-hoon 96% |
| Daegu Mayor 2026 |
$3M |
Choo Kyung-ho 99% |
| France President 2027 |
$90M |
Bardella 27%, Philippe 17% |
| Trump declassifies UFO files by June 30 |
$325K |
88% |
| US confirms aliens exist by Dec 2027 |
$48M |
16% |
Data sourced from Polymarket on 2026-06-04. Prices are indicative and subject to market liquidity.
Report generated: 2026-06-04 00:03:26 UTC