Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-06-12
Big Picture: US-Iran diplomatic developments dominate prediction markets with $478M+ in volume, while the 2028 Presidential race and NBA Finals draw significant trader interest. High-confidence markets cluster around Knicks championship (80%), Democratic House control (83%), and Peru's Fujimori (96%).
Top Volume Markets
| Market | Volume | Top Odds |
|---|---|---|
| World Cup Winner 2026 | $2.0B | Spain 17%, France 16% |
| 2028 Presidential Election | $625M | Marco Rubio 15%, JD Vance 15% |
| 2026 NBA Champion | $422M | Knicks 80%, Spurs 20% |
| US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal (Dec 2026) | $292M | 76% |
| US-Iran Relations (total) | $478M+ | Multiple markets |
US-Iran Relations ($478M+ total)
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Dec 31, 2026 | 76% |
| Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade Lifted by Jul 31, 2026 | 77% |
| US Announces New Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension by Jul 31, 2026 | 80% |
| US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting by Jul 31, 2026 | 73% |
| Iran Agrees to Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile by Dec 31, 2026 | 38% |
| Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control by Aug 31 | 12% |
US Politics
| Market | Volume | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 House of Representatives — Democratic Control | $7M | 83% |
| 2028 Presidential Winner | $625M | Marco Rubio 15%, JD Vance 15% |
| LA Mayoral Election 2026 | $11M | Karen Bass 61%, Nithya Raman 39% |
International Elections
| Market | Volume | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Peru Presidential — Keiko Fujimori | $99M | 96% |
| Colombia Presidential — Abelardo de la Espriella | $37M | 88% |
High Confidence Markets (>75%)
- New York Knicks 2026 NBA Champion — 80%
- Democrat House Control 2026 — 83%
- Fujimori Wins Peru Presidency — 96%
- Hormuz Blockade Lifted by July 2026 — 77%
- New Iran Agreement by July 2026 — 80%
Low Confidence Markets (<25%)
- US Confirms Aliens Exist by Dec 2026 — 10%
- Iran Ceasefire Over by June 2026 — 12%
- Kharg Island Not Under Iranian Control by Aug 2026 — 12%
- Iran Surrenders Enriched Uranium by Jul 2026 — 19%
Data via Polymarket.com — prediction market odds reflect real-money trader consensus and may not reflect expert opinion. All probabilities subject to change.